Forex Picks

Welcome to the Most Accurate Source for Forex Market Predictions. Effortlessly predict Forex trends with the highest accuracy on the market Forex-Forecasting utilizes artificial intelligence based on neural network technology, advanced statistical methods, and non-periodic wave analysis This innovative technology is now available to you, the trader, featuring. Daily and intra-day Forex market predictions with decision support. Simple and user-friendly web interfaces. Proven mathematical methods based on advanced neural networks technology. Downloadable modules for third-party software e g MetaStock, Metatrader and others. Try it now for free limited time offer Get a chance to increase your profit. Real-time Test - EUR USD 1 Hour Prediction. Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Bearish. The probability of a FOMC hike at the March 15 meeting has soared to 100 percent, the chances of 4 hikes in 2017 18 percent. With the ECB supposedly discussing rate hikes, the Dollar doesn t look so unique. Sign up for Friday s NFPs coverage and see what other webinars are scheduled this week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. Despite a remarkably robust set of economic data that included strong February payrolls and a rise in rate expectations to the point of certainty that the Fed will hike Wednesday, the Dollar lost ground this past week It isn t that there is some hidden element to the scheduled event risk that makes it ultimately disappointing Rather, speculation has reached well beyond the bounds of reasonable objective, and further that its most important counterparts may be gaining ground on its seemingly unassailable fundamental perch This is how good news can be met with disappointing response. This past week, we were offered fundamental support that just seemed indulgent against the already hard fought speculation the Dollar built upon over the past three years The top event risk for the period were the February labor statistics, which offered roaring support for the economy and plenty of motivation for the Fed The net payrolls offered a hearty beat for the third straight month, the jobless rate ticked lower to anchor to the multi-year low, wage growth picked back up to its most hearty pace in years and underlying figures showed better foundation to this general theme As encouraging as that may be economically, traders say little additional opportunity to draw from that information The had already leveraged their forecast for a rate hike at the March 15 FOMC meeting to 100 percent via Fed Fund futures after Wednesday s ADP private payroll report. Markets are forward looking and speculatively motivated This is where the buy the rumor, sell the news saying originates We should consider this heavy skew heading into the new trading week We may consider the Fed decision a far more influential event relative to the NFPs, but financial media prominence does not change the interpretation the market will make of the news A rate hike alone is already expected Furthermore, we can tell from rates markets that there is considerable speculation of a further two to three hikes through the rest of the year While it is possible to further shift expectations towards four hikes in 2017 which is not fully appreciated the need for conviction is high and the traction it would offer is comparably marginal. The more remarkable impact via US monetary policy would be if the Fed disappointed and that is easier to do A hold on rates would certainly qualify and while the Dollar is still in a more hawkish bearing than its major counterparts, the speculative saturation would likely lead to significantly fallout Yet, even in more favorable scenarios, the currency may find struggle Given the market s implicit assumption of an accelerated pace of hikes, the likely reiteration of gradual for future pace simply to ensure speculative appetites don t run roughshod over the economy could nevertheless translate into slow against such a fast backdrop. Perhaps more remarkable in positioning disappointment in the Dollar s favorable bearings is the improvement of the currency s major counterparts This is a relative market and one of the Greenback s strongest qualities over the past five years has been the weaker assessment and forecast for its most liquid counterparts That best of the worst title is no longer appropriate however Growth has returned to the world s largest developed economies Despite unique risks for most of them, stability has prevailed And, now, it even seems that the promise of rates is starting to return The reasonable ends of extreme dovish monetary policy was generally shaped over the past few years, but that would precede an actual turn to normalization to close the gap with the Dollar and Fed A tangible step was offered through the end of this past week when it was reported the ECB discussed the possibility of hiking rates before QE purchases ended at the close of 2017.Where the Dollar still has the advantage on growth and yield potential, its premium doesn t seem to be growing It may in fact be shrinking Unless full-scale risk aversion revives the USD s appeal as an absolute haven, its unchallenged bull trend may be challenged - JK. Fundamental Forecast for EUR USD Neutral.- Euro s top fundamental risk appear to be fading fast as odds of a Marine Le Pen victory in the French presidential elections continues to fall.- European Central Bank s cautiously optimistic tone and refusal to re-up the TLTRO leads to steepening of yield curves across Europe, providing support for the single currency. The Euro was easily the top performer last week, as the combination of a more optimistic European Central Bank and the odds of a Marine Le Pen victory in the French presidential elections falling have proven to knock down fundamental obstacles to further Euro gains EUR NZD was the top performing EUR-cross, gaining 2 01 , while EUR GBP added 1 15 , and EUR USD, the laggard, added 0 48.Starting with the ECB, it seems that they ve taken notice of the generally improving economic conditions in the region, as we ve discussed in this note for each of the past few weeks ECB President Mario Draghi said that risks of deflation have largely disappeared, and that the balance of risk regarding growth has improved In turn, the ECB upgraded their inflation and GDP forecasts for the region its inflation forecasts improved for 2017 1 8 from 1 3 in December and 2018 1 7 from 1 6 in December and it increased its GDP forecasts for 2017 1 8 from 1 7 in December and 2018 1 7 from 1 6 in December. While the ECB did announce that it would continue as planned with its QE taper, down to 60 billion per month for the remainder of 2017 which will add over half a trillion of government debt to its balance sheet , there was a comment in Draghi s press conference that was rather illuminating When asked about the language around interest rate levels, he said that the Governing Council had a cursory discussion about whether to remove the word lower from the forward guidance. This refers to the opening salvo of the ECB s policy statement, We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases While the ECB isn t going to hike rates while its continuing to expand its balance sheet, this word choice indicates that the ECB is slowly but surely moving to a less dovish policy stance The steepening of yield curves across Europe, mainly in Germany and in France, as well as the Euro strength around the press conference, suggest that markets understood this cautiously optimistic, dovish-yet-slightly-hawkish tone seriously. To underscore how confident the ECB s Governing Council are on the improvement in conditions in the Euro-Zone, they decided not to extend another TLTRO targeted longer-term refinancing operation , noting that no member of the Governing Council felt the need to discuss a new TLTRO Backing away from such an extraordinary policy tool is a sign that the ECB feels the worst of the Euro-Zone debt crisis is in the rearview mirror. Chart 1 Oddschecker Implied Probabilities of Candidate Win January 20 to March 10, 2017.With the ECB starting to back away from the abyss, the Euro seems to stand to benefit The other major hurdle in its way is, of course, the French presidential elections the Dutch elections this coming Wednesday, even if the PVV party and Geert Wilders win the popular vote, won t have much of an impact as they won t be able to form a governing coalition The French presidential election, as an existential risk that could ultimately lead to a Frexit, seems to be fading, thanks to the National Front s Marine Le Pen s chances at winning stagnating. As the centrist technocrat Emmanuel Macron s odds of not only winning a second round runoff May 7 against Le Pen are increasing, but also the likelihood that he will defeat Le Pen in the first round of elections April 23 starting to increase as well, markets are slowly reducing any political risk premium weighing on the Euro For the foreseeable future, speculation around the French presidential remains the most important driver of the Euro and it s starting to drive the Euro in a direction of further strength regardless of the Federal Reserve hiking rates this coming Wednesday just a bump in the road at this point in time CV.--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist. To contact Christopher, email him at. Fundamental Forecast for the Japanese Yen Neutral. USD JPY stands at risk of facing increased volatility over the coming week as the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC is widely expected to deliver a March rate-hike, while the Bank of Japan BoJ continues to pursue its Quantitative Qualitative Easing QQE Program with Yield-Curve Control. Even though the U S dollar failed to benefit from the 235K expansion in U S Non-Farm Payrolls NFP Fed Fund Futures are still pricing a greater than 90 probability for a 25bp rate-hike Indeed, an adjustment in the benchmark interest rate may spark a near-term advance in the greenback as the central bank pledges to implement higher borrowing-costs throughout 2017, but the U S dollar may face a knee-jerk reaction as market participants gauge the future pace of the normalization cycle. With Fed officials scheduled to release their update projections, more of the same may prop up the dollar as the central bank remains confident in achieving the 2 inflation-target over the policy horizon Nevertheless, the most bearish scenario for the greenback would be a further reduction in the longer-run interest rate forecasts as it undermines the recent uptick in U S yields The central bank may tame expectations for a series of rate-hikes and outline a more shallow path for the fed funds rate as officials persistently warn market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance As a result, the central bank may try to buy time especially as Chair Janet Yellen argues inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices. With that said, the BoJ interest rate decision may generate limited market interest as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda notes there is not much likelihood that we will further lower the negative rate , and the central bank may continue to endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as officials monitor the impact of the non-standard measures on the real economy However, Governor Kuroda and Co may keep the door open to further embark on the easing-cycle as they struggle to achieve the 2 target for price growth, and the diverging paths may continue to foster a long-term bullish outlook for USD JPY especially as the BoJ strives to keep the 10-year yield close to zero. Nevertheless, USD JPY stands at a similar juncture from earlier this year, with the series of failed attempts to close above 115 10 50 retracement raising the risk for a near-term pullback in the exchange rate In turn, dollar-yen may continue to track the near-term range as the pair remains capped by the Fibonacci overlap around 116 00 38 2 retracement to 116 10 78 6 expansion , with the first downside hurdle coming in around 114 00 23 6 retracement to 114 30 23 6 retracement followed by 113 10 78 6 retracement. Fundamental Forecast for GBP USD Bearish.- UK data has disappointed of late Citi Economic Surprise Index down over the past month.- Bank of England highly unlikely to alter its ultra-accommodative polic y stance on Thursday.- Labo r market one crumb of comfort amid disappointing data elsewhere. The British Pound has been bogged down by fears of economic weakness, Brexit uncertainty and of recent, the strength of the US Dollar and the Euro Rising Fed rate hike expectations for March and a less dovish ECB are doing the Sterling no favors, as the BOE remains in an ultra-accommodative policy stance The British Pound closed out the week dropping for a sixth day versus the Euro, its worse run since August, and had a second straight week of declines against the Greenback. U K data have disappointed of late, highlighting fears that the negative effect of the Brexit decision is beginning to bite House price data this week show that buyer demand growth stalled in February Before that, on Tuesday, UK retail sales softened in February, according to data from the British Retail Consortium, with non-food sales falling on an annual basis for the first time since 2011 in the three months to the end of February more evidence that the hit to consumer spending growth from higher inflation caused by Sterling s Brexit-related slump is starting to be felt on the British high street. Wednesday s budget statement did little to alter the headwinds facing the UK economy Data on Friday revealed the UK s industrial production and manufacturing output contracted in January, as expected, after the broader industrial measure hit a six-year high at the end of last year Overall, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the UK has slipped from 101 3 on February 15 to 80 by the week s end. In the coming quarters, the fall in the manufacturing PMI to 54 6 in February from 55 7 in January suggests that the strong growth in manufacturing in Q4 16 is unlikely to be repeated, with some economists warning that the UK is entering stagflation, a period where the economy faces high inflation and low growth, a veritable policy nightmare. With t hat said, the labour market is holding up well, and for now any slowdown in activity looks modest We ll get more info on that front next week with the release of labour marke t data Wednesday Apart from the jobless claims figures next week there s little in the way of fundamental data that could help prop up the ailing Pound The Bank of England has its March policy meeting on Thursday, but it is highly unlikely to alter its ultra-accommodative policy stance and f orecast to keep rates at 0 25.Brexit discussions can also be expected to weigh further on Sterling The UK government plans to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, and the lack of any further details from PM Theresa May and Brexit Minister David Davis continues to weigh The House of Lords vote to ensure Parliament has the final say on any UK-EU agreement has subtly increased the chances of a hard Brexit once the two-year negotiating window closes the May government is expected to trigger Article 50 by the end of this month. Piggybacking on the Brexit headlines, news emerged this past week that t here could also be the prospect of another Scottish referendum Scotland s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon claims autumn 2018, just months before the UK is expected to leave the EU, would be a common sense time to h old another independence vote Scotland voted 62 in favor of Remain, while the UK on the whole 52 in favor of Leave The outlook for the British Pound appears to remain quite gloomy for the foreseeable future - OM.--- Written by Oliver Morrison, Market Analyst. Fundamental Forecast for Gold Neutral. Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal down 2 67 to trade at 1201 ahead of the New York close on Friday Bullion is down more than 5 off the yearly high and has been fueled by expectations for higher borrowing costs from the Fed Heading into next week, the quarterly FOMC policy meeting will be central focus with gold approaching key near-term support targets of interest. U S Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday topped expectations with a print of 235K as the unemployment rate fell to 4 7 The move was accompanied by an uptick in the broader labor force participation rate, a welcomed shift the central bank will likely consider heading into next week s critical rate decision. With a 25 basis point rate-hike already priced-in for March, market participants will be focused on adjustments in the interest rate dot-plot as the central bank appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2017 Officials have noted three or even four rate-hikes could be appropriate this year as the Fed closes in on its dual mandate As long as the Fed stays on course, gold prices remain vulnerable to further losses - that said, the broader technical outlook remains tilted to the downside with near-term rebounds to offer potential short-entries. Initial weekly support is eyed into 1193 backed closely by a more significant confluence region at 1176 80 61 8 retracement of the December advance and the 2013 low - This is a key region of support and an area of interest for near-term exhaustion long-entries Broader resistance now stands with former slope support which converges on the yearly high-week close at 1234.A closer look at the daily chart further highlights this near-term support zone and while the broader technical outlook has turned over, prices could see a reprieve off these levels especially on a dip 1176 80 From a trading standpoint, I ll be looking for strength early in the week to offer favorable short-entries while below confluence resistance at 1234.---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX. Follow Michael on Twitter MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list. Fundamental Forecast for USD CAD Bullish.- USD CAD has rallied towards the top of a six-month range but further weakness may lie ahead.- Canadian unemployment data posts significant beat, stabilizing Loonie.- Fed rate decision, oil inventories on Wednesday likely to drive oil, with repercussions for USD CAD. The Canadian dollar has been range bound for the last six-months against the USD and trading within a rough 1 2950 1 3550 range since mid-September And with little economic data of note next week, the upper band may be tested as oil trades lower, US President Donald Trump mulls a new trade agreement, and as a rate hike from the Federal Reserve nears this coming Wednesday. The lates t better-than-expected Canadian unemployment release may have given the Canadian dollar a short-term boost but further challenges lie ahead Data from Statistics Canada showed Canadian employment increase by 15 3K jobs in February, beating expectations of a -5K fall The unemployment declined to 6 6 from 6 8 , again beating expectations of an unchanged reading. The recent fall in Crude Oil down below 50 barrel and nearly -9 lower on the month, has kept the pressure on an already weak Canadian dollar Weekly data show US crude oil stocks jumping to 528 million barrels, up 8 2 million barrels in a week and sharply higher than estimates of two million barrels This inventory build comes despite the recent OPEC agreement to cut output by around 1 8 million barrels per day by mid-2017.Soft oil prices and the impact on the Canadian energy sector are not the only recent developments troubling the Loonie US President Donald Trump has said that he will work at tweaking the current trade agreement between the two countries With the US taking over 75 of Canada s exports, even small trade adjustments - unlikely to be a net-benefit for Canada - will likely hurt the Canadian currency further. Ahead next week lies another roadblock for the Loonie, with the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates by 0 25 at its March 14-15 monetary policy meeting With expectations of a hike hitting 100 this week, traders are now pricing in a second and third US interest rate hike in 2017, with the more hawkish commentators even talking the potential for four increases this year A stronger US Dollar and higher interest rates will feed back into weaker oil prices, which will hurt Canada s trade position, and thus, the Canadian Dollar Near-term weakness in USD CAD may be seen as a buying opportunity on a longer-term basis NC.--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst. Don t trade FX but want to learn more Read the DailyFX Trading Guides. Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast Bearish. The prospect of higher US rates while Aussie rates languish has hit AUD USD since late February. This trend lower is unlikely to be broken if the Federal Reserve does hike this week. But the thesis that Australian rates won t rise this year is now being questioned. At face value this ought to be one of the easiest weeks in which to forecast Australian Dollar direction. The Aussie s long fightback from its post-US-election lows was stymied in late February by a swelling chorus of comment from the Federal Reserve which at one point had markets pricing the probability of a March interest-rate hike at 98 Even long-time counsellors of caution such as Fed Board member Lael Brainard seemed relaxed about a move Chair Yellen seemed to all-but set the seal on a March rise last week. And the Fed will give its March policy call on Wednesday. By contrast last week s monetary policy conclave at the Reserve Bank of Australia evinced no sense of urgency whatsoever to move Aussie rates from their record lows. So, interest-rate differentials are driving, US rates are going up and Aussie rates are staying put It has to be a bearish call, right Well, yes, it probably does. The Fed s in charge, but for how long AUD USD. Chart Compiled Using TradingView. But there are some new points in the Australian currency s favor which we need to consider, even if they won t change the game as soon as this week. The latest Commitment of Traders snapshot from the Chicago Board Options exchange showed the largest net-long position in the Aussie since May, 2016 Now these numbers cover the week of February 28 That s quite historic by foreign-exchange market standards It s possible that our speculative friends have been caught out by the vehemence of Fed hawkishness since and bailed out But it s also possible that they didn t And in that case there s clearly significant bullish support for the currency, Fed and all. Moreover, various major banks worried aloud this week that Australian interest-rate pricing might be too low At the moment, markets think rates could be on hold all through this year, and possibly well into next But Citibank noted that Australian economic newsflow has increasingly outperformed analysts expectations It went no further but UBS commented last week that, the current record low cash rate might now just be too low. Goldman Sachs went the whole hog Last Wednesday it brought its already hawkish rate-rise call in from February 2018 to November this year - with a 60 probability Now this is an outlier, of course But it s potentially significant nevertheless. The Australian Dollar is unlikely to stand up to any US-Dollar bullishness unleashed if the Fed does indeed raise rates It is likely to struggle this week But it s longer-term prospects could look a lot brighter. The year s first quarter is getting old How are the Daily FX analysts forecasts holding up.--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research. Contact and follow David on Twitter DavidCottleFX. Fundamental Forecast for NZD USD Bearish.- Rising US rate hike expectations are dampening demand for the high yielding Kiwi.- RBNZ s shift in stance and lack of supportive data are weighing on New Zealand Dollar.- Next week s GDP print is unlikely to alter the RBNZ s accommodative stance on rates. The New Zealand Dollar continues to w eaken after a shift in sentiment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its February policy meeting While it had held t he official cash rate steady at record lows of 1 75 it suggested that it could rem ain there for two years or more rates markets per overnight index swaps had been pricing in a 76 chance of a rate hike by year end The Kiwi started its slide as RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said that the currency ought to be lower than current market pricing which did the damage, pouring water on rate hike bets. Domestically, he said the greatest source of uncertainty currently lies around the housing market and the possibility that imbalances in the housing market might deteriorate House price inflation has moderated substantially in recent months, but it s too early to say whether this moderation will continue, according to Governor Wheeler. With the RBNZ and its governor pushing back against the currency s overvaluation, this past week s data relea ses didn t help the Kiwi either A - 1 8 drop in manufacturing sales in Q4 16 and sliding dairy prices at this week s Global Dairy T rade auction added fuel to the fire the GDT Price Index fell by another -6 3 from two weeks earlier T he strong US Dollar, which is being fueled by expectations of faster rate hik es from the US Federal Reserve, is putting pressure on high yielding currencies and emerging markets alike The recen t weakness in commodities, particular soft agriculture, has also been weighing on the Kiwi. N ext week s New Zealand economic calendar is looking a little busier, with consumer confidence stats due out Tuesday followed by current account data on Wednesday and most vitally, New Zealand s Q4 16 Gross Domestic Product report Thursday However, markets don t expect the GDP print to alter the RBNZ s accommodative stance on rates as growth is expected to slow to 0 7 q q from 1 1 q q, or 3 2 y y from 3 5 y y For now, there are few good things to say about the New Zealand Dollar, the worst performing major currency in each of the past two weeks.--- Written by Oliver Morrison, Market Analyst. Analyst Picks. Target 118 66 371-pips on entry 1, 304-pips on entry 2 average 337 5.Stop 114 00 -95-pips maximum trail below daily 13-EMA. Reward Risk Ratio 337 5 95 3 55.Chart 1 USD JPY Daily Timeframe November 2016 to March 2017.Chart 2 USD JPY Daily Time Frame March 2016 to March 2017.USD JPY appears to be trying to put in a base above an area that has provided both support and resistance over the past 14-months, between 110 50 and 112 00 This basing has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle, which has started to show signs of breaking out to the topside The swing levels in triangle to watch are 114 95 and 115 62 Closes through these levels will increase confidence in a return back to the yearly highs set near 118 66 Risk is easy to define using the daily 13-EMA, which price has tested but not closed below since February 28 Currently, the daily 13-EMA is 114 00, where stops can be trailed to. One way to increase confidence in the long USD JPY position would be to look towards confirmation in the main Japanese stock index, the Nikkei 225 Historically, the Nikkei 225 performs best when the Japanese Yen is weakening The ascending triangle in place in the Nikkei 225 can be used as a litmus test to confirm that USD JPY will be moving higher A break above 19676 would increase our confidence in a USD JPY breakout back towards 118 66 See Currency Strategist Michael Boutros indepth look at the Nikkei 225.Chart 3 Nikkei 225 Daily Timeframe November 2016 to March 2017.Chart 4 Nikkei 225 Daily Timeframe April 2016 to March 2017.--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist. To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail. Follow him on Twitter at CVecchioFX. To be added to Christopher s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form. We ve been tracking the ascent in the DXY for the past few weeks and heading into U S NFPs tomorrow, the focus remains on the upper parallel red with a breach above the monthly opening-range highs at 102 26 needed to mark the next leg higher in the index Interim support rests with the monthly open which converges with the lower median-line at 101 44 We ll be looking for a resolution of this key near-term range to offer further guidance on our near-term directional bias. USD JPY The outlook levels for USDJPY remain unchanged from last week with a break of this week s opening range keeping the long-bias in play for now Heading into NFPs 115 50 115 93-116 08 are regions of interest of possible near-term exhaustions resistance Support near-term bullish invalidation raised to 113 57.We ve highlighted the risk to the crude outlook as prices probed critical resistance last week at 54 75-55 with the pullback off this level now testing a key near-term support zone at 48 70-49 07 This region is defined by the 38 2 retracement of the July advance, the 50 retracement of the November advance and the 200-day moving average. Keep in mind that this decline technically compromises the 2017 opening range and while the broader risk remains for a larger setback in prices, near-term we must respect a rebound off this mark Interim resistance stands at 50 60 80 backed by bearish invalidation at 51 46 64 A break lower from here targets subsequent support objectives at the 61 8 retracement at 47 16 basic trendline support extending off the April low, currently. Looking for trade ideas Review DailyFX s 2017 1 Q Projections.---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX. J oin Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinar s on Mondays on DailyFX at 1 3 30 GMT 8 30ET. Follow Michael on Twitter MBForex contact him at or Clic k H ere to be added to his email distribution list. AUD JPY stands at risk for a larger correction and may face further losses over the days ahead it struggles to preserve the holding pattern from earlier this year. The broader outlook for AUD JPY remains constructive as the Bank of Japan BoJ sticks to its Quantitative Qualitative Easing QQE Program with Yield Curve Control, while the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA continues to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy However, the recent weakness in the global benchmark equity indices may broadly track the near-term recovery in the Japanese Yen as market participants appear to be scaling back their appetite for risk. After climbing to a fresh 2017 high 88 18 in February, the Relative Strength Index RSI warned of a near-term exhaustion as the oscillator deviated from price and largely failed to push into overbought territory With that said, AUD JPY has come back up against the 50-Day SMA 86 08 , which has kept the pair afloat since the start of the year However, a break close below the moving average may open up the downside targets especially as the RSI threatens the bullish formation carried over from 2016 The next downside region of interest comes in around 84 60 100 expansion to 85 00 100 expansion. If you re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides.--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst. To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at DavidJSong. To be added to David s e-mail distribution list, please fol l ow this link. Target 1 1 5341 - 61 8 Retrac em ent of July-February Price Range. Target 2 1 5837 July 2016 Correct High Start of Wedge Lower. Invalidation Level Close 1 4862 Feb 9th high. Fundamental Technical Focus. The Euro has been left out of the headlines as a strong currency thanks in large part to the focus on the USD as Janet Yellen has encouraged traders to ask whether or not the Fed could be looking at four rate hikes in either 2017 or 2018.However, as the question towards ECB tapering is asked in light of rising inflation and economic growth, the EUR continues to find favor against many currencies A group of currencies that EUR has recently outperformed against is the commodity bloc, such as CAD and NZD. As the commodity market appears to be a toothless tiger in 2017 with little continuity, New Zealand and other commodity producing economies could continue to see selling orders at the expense of their currency A recent New Zealand Inflation gauge showed price pressure in New Zealand looked tame, which helped push the NZ Dollar to a two-month low The Canadian Dollar also recently saw 2017 lows against stronger currency pairs. Favorable Strong Weak Relationship. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT.